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Origins of the Crash: The Great Bubble and Its Undoing, by Roger Lowenstein
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This inquiry into the rise and fall of the great Wall Street boom of the 1990s, from bestselling author Roger Lowenstein, has all the hallmarks of a financial classic.
Roger Lowenstein, recognized as one of the best financial reporters of our time, turns his focus to the 1990s stock market and economic boom and bust in Origins of the Crash. With his singular gift for turning complex financial events into eminently readable stories, Lowenstein lays bare the labyrinthine events of the manic 1990s-including the collapse of Enron, the dot-com bubble, the accounting scandal at Andersen, and much more.
Drawing on his sense of history, Lowenstein inquires how a financial system that arose out of the wreckage of the Depression and that was intended to avert the miscues of that era could ultimately repeat the very same scenario of massive speculation and corruption leading to collapse. He discovers the roots of the recent crisis in the financial culture that cropped up in the 1970s and 1980s as America encouraged companies to hand out ever greater packages of stock options to their executives. In an enthralling narrative, Lowenstein ties together all of the characters of the great boom and bust: Alan Greenspan, Jack Grubman, Jack Welch, Abby Cohen, Henry Blodget, and a host of dot-com pioneers. But it is the collective rendering of such figures-the unique portrayal of the culture of the era-that truly distinguishes Origins of the Crash as the book that will frame our appreciation of the period.
Just as John Kenneth Galbraith's The Great Crash was the canonical text of 1929, Lowenstein's Origins of the Crash is destined to become the definitive account of the 1990s.
- Sales Rank: #1414974 in Books
- Published on: 2004-01-26
- Released on: 2004-01-22
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.62" h x 1.09" w x 6.44" l,
- Binding: Hardcover
- 288 pages
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
In the 1970s, a candidate for president advanced the novel proposition that the money in the Social Security system should be funneled into, of all places, the stock market. The candidate’s name was Ronald Reagan. The incumbent president, Gerald Ford, had a good deal of fun with this evidently zany proposition. “I am not sure a lot of people would think it was a very good place to invest funds over the longer period of time,” Ford declared. His advisers had no trouble tarring the idea as kooky. The president likened it to “something dragged out of the sky.” If not certifiably alien, then it might even be—perish the thought—an example of “wild-eyed socialism,” which was no doubt something worse.
Ford did not have to explain why he thought the stock market was not a safe place “over the longer period of time.” Stocks were considered simply too risky. Indeed, in 1976, the market was no higher than its level of eleven years before. Adjusted for inflation, the picture was far worse: The purchasing power of the average stock had fallen by two thirds. Even over the longer sweep of a half century, stocks had managed a gain of only 3.5 percent a year, so that people thought of the stock market as a place that went upward a little but sideways mostly, with wrenching nosedives along the way. Indeed, the number of Americans who owned stock would actually fall during the seventies by seven million.
Such grim statistics were reflected in a certain distance between the market and people’s ordinary lives. Many newspapers carried at most a single account of the previous day’s action on Wall Street, and television barely covered it at all. Today, at my daughter’s middle school in New Jersey, an investing club is busily educating future market wizards, but in the seventies, through four years on an Ivy League campus, I didn’t hear a mention of the stock market. Professors spoke darkly of America’s economic interests, but if any of those interests happened to be corporations with publicly traded shares, it was a detail that went unspoken.
Unlike in the nineties, when people would become accustomed to faithfully adding a little bit to mutual funds, rain or shine, every month, in the seventies, they withdrew a little bit, month after month, and they did so for eight long years. For Wall Street it was one long night, one long depression. Even the pros who managed pension funds were little more interested in stocks than my professors were. By 1979, of the money managed by pension funds, 90 percent was invested not in stocks but in bonds, bills and cash, which was practically like stuffing it under a mattress. That summer, BusinessWeek sized up America’s non-love affair with the stock market in a morbid, and instantly famous, cover story—“The Death of Equities.”
But equities were not dead, only dormant. And the renaissance began in short order. Three months after the article, mutual funds—finally—took in more money from investors than they redeemed. The net addition was a trifle—a mere $12 million. But deep in the giant furnace room where the economy is engineered, a long-stuck wheel had emitted a creak, shaken off its cobwebs, and, finally, turned. People were buying stocks.
Over time, this little shift, this rediscovered habit that would ripen into a passion, would affect far more than the Dow Jones average. When investors awoke, executives found that they, too, inhabited a different world. The rules soon changed for auditors and analysts and ordinary savers as well—an entire culture was retailored. By the late 1990s, America would become more sensitive to markets, more ruled by markets, than any country on earth.
This was the culture that would lead to prosperity and also to Enron. Markets would become virtually sovereign—unchecked by corporate watchdogs or by government. Distortions would follow, and with the temptation of wealth that distortions brought, corruption. But in the late seventies, no one was thinking of markets as powerful or pervasive. The country’s problem was that it was too insensitive, too unresponsive, to markets. They were not hyperactive or feverish then, but—potentially—a cure.
About the Author
Roger Lowenstein, author of the bestselling Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist and When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-term Capital Management, reported for the Wall Street Journal for more than a decade and wrote the Journal's stock market column "Heard on the Street" and also its "Intrinsic Value" column. He now contributes articles and reviews to the Journal and the New York Times Magazine and is a columnist for SmartMoney Magazine.
Review
...Mr. Lowenstein is at the top of his game. -- New York Times, January 11, 2004
...a compelling and fascinating read. -- Arthur Levitt, Jr., author of Take on the Street
This book has the power to keep readers burning the Itty Bitty book light until the wee hours... -- BusinessWeek, February 16, 2004
Most helpful customer reviews
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
A "Bitter" Book
By Amazon Customer
I had an extremely favorable impression of Lowenstein's books, having gone through the classic "When Genius Failed" as well as "Buffett". After having read this, though, I fear to say that I'm pretty disappointed.
As some other reviewers have pointed out, the book is pretty detailed, with the exception of a few bloopers. However, I couldn't fail to notice a sense of personal vendetta emanating from each page. Someone seems to have lost a bundle during the Dot Com bust.
Among other shortcomings, Clayton Christensen was dismissed as yet another New Economy Guru, and the entire narrative seemed to pivot on CEOs being the epitome of evil. I'm not quite sure I agree with this characterization; it's unnecessarily biased. Also, there was very less attention paid to the fact that, for a particular generation of America, the 90s Bull Run was their own weird corporate version of the Swinging 60s and Free Love. I recognize the fact that, in a book describing the Origins of the Crash, this can be ignored as a first approximation. In my view, though, those social "mob" effects had a vital role to play, especially when they were swinging to the beats of Meeker, Blodget and the Motley Fool brothers.
Overall, I much prefer Maggie Mahar's book Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004 over this book. Sorry RL!
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
The 1990s Market Bubble--How to 'Get It'
By AdamSmythe
The stock market bubble of the late 1990s represented one of the most intense periods of broad-based irrational behavior since the 1920s, and the fallout from the bursting of the bubble likely kicked off the 2001 recession, cost thousands of employees their jobs, and cost untold investors large amounts of their hard-earned savings (I'd suggest well upwards of $1 trillion). How could something so irrational happen in this day of enlightenment? Roger Lowenstein, one of the best financial authors for the lay person, has done an excellent job of describing and detailing the elixir of half-truths, conflicts of interest, shabby corporate governance and outright fraud that intoxicated many investors. More specifically, Lowenstein provides a highly readable explanation of how too many corporate managers and directors, rather than working in the interests of their shareholders, became looters of shareholder wealth via misleading financial statements, excessive use of stock options and other shenanigans. He also does a good job illustrating how hopelessly conflicted some Wall Street analysts, and even public accounting firms, became during the wild-and-crazy times. The chapter on Enron, a must-read all by itself, will provide a lot answers to those who wonder how such a massive corporation could collapse in this age.
To those who already know about the various roles played by Jack Grubman (a very influential Wall Street analyst), Arthur Levitt (the SEC chair during much of the 1990s), Andy Fastow (Ernon's financial alchemist) and Billy Tauzin (an influential Congressman), you will most likely find this book easy, lively reading. For those who are not already familiar with these people and with what will likely turn out to have been the most intense financial mania of our lifetimes, this highly readable book will open your eyes.
3 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Our Character, not the Stars....
By dennis wentraub
Reviewing Roger Lowenstein's highly readable account I am reminded of a Fortune magazine editor's throwaway comment - After the bubble people go to jail. For Lowenstein the ultimate cause of the stock market bubble was an abused interpretation of "shareholder value" that became a mantra for CEO's, accountants, stock analysts, lawyers, bankers, and finally investors. More than an historical footnote, Lowenstein has given us a moral indictment of the culture that produced this costly lesson in excess.
The notion of shareholder value and its devolving emphasis in the 1990's on share price rather than underlying business values proved devastating. "Virtually every transgression [of the period] flowed from this simple corruption." The "misplaced incentive" of lavishly awarded stock options bent the focus of CEO's and senior management to short-term stock price moves. Widespread use of stock options sprang from an academic idea to align the interests of management with shareholders and stimulate American corporate culture. Focusing on short-term quarterly benchmarks simply raised the importance of the stock price at that moment in time to the detriment of the harder job...building the business for the long run. For Lowenstein stock options are the crack cocaine of boardroom culture, the bitten apple of the period's "original sin". It is this perspective that gives coherence and insight to many of the particulars of the period still fresh in our minds. While there are clearly individual villains in Lowenstein's account, he makes the case for a pervasive ethical breakdown and a culture out of touch with its better standards.
Absent to a large degree from this account of the Crash are the dynamics of supply and demand. In the 1990's markets encouraged misallocations in the area of technology and telecommunications. It is easy to forget the urgency behind huge IT capital outlays to update computer systems prior to the stroke of 2000. Serious people considered if lights would go out, ATM's fail. Would there be hoarding of goods and cash? Would there be a recession? Would computers lock-up? Excess capacity and an over-stimulated economy were also major contributions to the bubble, but they get little attention here. This is not Lowenstein's contribution to the discussion. He sees the excesses not as a one-off, inventory event or another turn of the business cycle. His view is less academic, less antiseptic. And it is also a more unsettling view as it is rooted in character and culture.
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